Week 7 Picks

Week 7 is in the books. Green Bay was lifted to a Monday night victory on the backs of the officials, Jamies Winston is back to finding the other team at an alarming rate, and the Dolphin won Tank Bowl 2019

My Dog Pound picks went 1-1, but I’m feeling like we turned a corner. We learned some things in week 6 that will help us make some money for the rest of the year.

Detroit was close to leaving Lambeau with a win on Monday night, but the refs intervened. To me, I don’t really care about that. We learned that The Lions showed the could play some ball and that you can’t leave the game in reach for Aaron Rodgers.

The Seahawks and Saints look like 2 teams that are going to methodically beat their opponents and we’ll never know how until they do it.

I also learned that I have to eat some crow on my views on Houston. Desahun can win some games with his legs and the Kansas City defense is going to cost this team some games. 

What else?

  • The Chargers are toast.
  • Dallas, WTF?
  • San Francisco has some huevos.
  • Ravens, still question marks.
  • Matt Bryant… .Gulp
  • Kirk Cousins, due for  a major collapse.

So here’s the picks I am pounding this week.


I could make up a lot of reasons for my pick here.

I could say Karma catches up to GB and they give one back.

I could say that Oakland is coming off a bye and the Packers are coming off a short week.

But, I’ll be honest. I chalk this pick up to one thing alone. All the goddamn film Gruden has seen of Aaron Rodgers from his time in the Monday Night Football Booth. God did he tell us all about it.

Man. Aaron Rodgers, man.

Jon Gruden

Gruden is out to teach young Matt LaFleur a thing or two about a thing or two. I suspect that he takes away anything the Packers can do well and makes this game miserable just as he did to the Bears in London.

I could see the classic Packers field goal as time expires to win it, and I could see Chucky and crew leaving GB with a win, but I’ll take the points and spare myself the moneyline cardiac arrest.

The Pick

OAK +4.5


This one is all gut.

I just don’t see a world where the Bills win by 17.

If the Bills defense have another dominant outing, I see the Bills offense playing lazy and winning 10-0 or 17-3.

If the Dolphins get the Fitzmagic bump and they put up 10 or more I just can’t see the Bills putting up enough to cover.

I also love to play games when the Vegas score is bunk. Vegas has this one going 29-12. The Bills have not scored 29 all year (yes, I know it’s the Dolphins), but the Dolphins have only score more than 10 points once this year, and it was last week against the pathetic Redskins.

Take the under if you like, but take the 2TD and 1 FG lead at kickoff and cash it.

The Pick

MIA +17

I’m basing this pick on 3 things.

One. I think Detroit is ready to win. There run game is respectable, the defense is respectable, Stafford can still sling the ball, and they’ve got a coach who is used to winning. Swallowing that loss on Monday Night win had to be tough, but they showed they can win on the road and this one is at home.

Two. I don’t believe this Kirk Cousins streak. Yes, he has strung together two good game, but he’s got a history that shows us that this won’t last. I’ll argue that they came against pretty shitty defenses and low pressure offensive drives. The Lions aren’t a top five D by any means, but I expect the Lions to keep it closer and make Kirk come back to earth

Three. The Lions just need this win more. The NFC North could easily get out of hand at 2-3-1 for the Lions. Minnesota on the other hand is over that scare coming off a two-game win streak and are due for a lackluster game

The Lions should win straight up, take these points.

The Pick

DET +2


Home field advantage is worth 3. I have to think home field advantage in Seattle is worth more. So, you’re telling me The Ravens should be favored on a neutral site? Hell no!

I’ll admit, I love watching LamJax do what he’s doing. I’m worried for him in this one. This is going to be a sloppy game in the rain where passing will be tough and planting those feet in the ground running will be nasty. Pair that with the 12th man noise and the cross country trip and The Seahawks win this battle of the birds.

I’m also very impressed with Seattle. Russell Wilson is having an MVP caliber season so far this year. His play and experience with Carroll’s game planning makes the Seahawks a top 3 NFC team in my book. 

The Pick

SEA -3

The Dog’s 2019 Record

Dog Pound 10-12 👎

Week 6 Picks

My dog pound picks need work. No. Doubt. About It. I was 0-5 in week 4. I barely saved face last week going 3-2.

I’m changing it up a bit this week. Moving forward I’m done picking all the games even though I was 52-54-3 picking all the dog crap games. I’ll be picking the bets I love this week and that’s that.

The Picks


I do not believe in this Texans team. Their O line continues to be a problem even with the addition of Laremy Tunsil early this season. I think this O-Line will even let the Chiefs defense look competent.

I also do not think the Houston wins are very convincing. They beat a Jags team in Houston (Which the Jags arguably won on that 2pt conversion), They fended off a Chargers comeback attempt in week 3, and they beat the Falcons who aren’t the same team we saw lose in the Super Bowl 2 years ago.

I will concede that their Week 1 opener against the Saints on the road was a bright spot, even though it was a loss. The point is, the Texans beat ok-to-bad teams at best. This Chiefs team is much better than that. Houston is not leaving Arrowhead with a win.

You have to go back to Weeks 5 and 7 of 2015 to find the last time that an Andy Reid Chiefs team lost consecutive home games and you have to go all the way back to Reid’s first season with the Chiefs in 2013 to find the last time they dropped 2 home games in 2 weeks. Arrowhead provides one of the best home field advantages and we’ll see that on Sunday.

I have no doubt the Chiefs will win this game. The question is, will they cover? The Dog’s gut says they win by double digits. But, if you want a stat, I got my stats guy on that too. Under Coach Reid the Chiefs have covered 67% of the time when favored at home by 5 points or less.

Three Woofs! Pound it.

The Pick

KC -4.5


I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t think about the Seahawks much. 

Maybe it is the fact that they are tucked away in the corner of the country. Maybe it’s just their reputation of just being an under the radar team that makes hay in the playoffs. Maybe I’m just genuinely jealous of Russell Wilson. Whatever.

But they’re playing my Brownies so let’s pay some attention. I was expecting to see the Browns a 3 point dog or more and seeing the 1 point made me very confused. What does Vegas know that I don’t?

Answer….. A WHOLE LOT.

Now, I am not the smartest guy on earth, but I know that the quarterback matters in the NFL. 

Whenever I am confused by a game I always turn the brain off and tell myself to K.I.S.S. it. Keep It Simple Stupid.

So let’s turn off those brains and let’s keep it simple and look at the quarterbacks.

Russell Wilson

  • Top passer rating in the league this year at 126.3
  • Has not throw a pick this year on 150+ attempts
  • Works with what he’s got

Baker Mayfield

  • Third lowest passer rating in the NFL at 68.5 
  • Leads the league with 8 picks this year on 150+ attempts
  • Can’t figure it out with OBJ, Landry, and Nick Chubb

Don’t overthink this one. Tell Vegas to shove it and take this one To. The. Bank.

Three Woofs. Pound it!

The Pick

SEA -1

The Dog’s 2019 Record

Dog Pound: 9-11 👎

Dog Pound – Week 5

Thanks for coming over to the Pound. We know you’re busy in a time pinch.  So is The Dog. If you’re going to read anything, read these picks. I owe y’all one!

No dogs in this pound. Not this week. My Dog Pound Picks took a shellacking last week, going 0-5, so we’ve got to have a bounce back. Need it. AND, Got to have it.

The plan is simple. Big Tasty Overs that can’t miss. Don’t over think it.

Cats have 9 lives. This Dog has 5 picks. Now GO POUND THESE PICKS! You’ll be glad you did.

Three Woofs. 🐶🐶🐶

Pound These Picks

Don’t miss the picks. Follow me on twitter or reddit or BOTH!

BUF +3

PHI -14

BAL -4



Dog Pound – Week 4

Thanks for coming over to the Pound. We know you’re busy in a time pinch.  So is The Dog. Work, play, football. Work, play, football. It never ends. Cincy was great last weekend, this weekend in The Chi. Pizza reqs, please. Hoping that you all have yourself a DAY!

Last week The Dog lost his killer instinct and The Dog Pound picks went 2-3.

What is a dog without instinct anyway? Nothin.

Hemingway, Shakespeare, and Tolstoy

I blame the Kentucky Bourbon Trail. Overs looked like Unders. Dogs looked like cats. But, that’s all behind us know. These are the 5 picks you need to pound this week.

Pick up a pick at the pound today! Now GO POUND THESE PICKS! You’ll be glad you did.

Three Woofs. 🐶🐶🐶

Pound These Picks

  1. GB -5
  2. NE -7.5
  3. KC -6.5
  4. HOU -4.5
  5. DAL @ NO OVER 46

Never miss the Dog Pound Picks. Make sure to follow @realdoggybets on twitter

Dog Pound – Week 3

Dog Pound 2019 Record: 4-1 ✅

Thanks for coming over to the Pound. We know you’re busy in a time pinch.  So is The Dog. Gotta get on the road and head over to @BuffaloTrace and gonna have himself a DAY! Hoping that you all have yourself a DAY too this fine Saturday. 

Dirty Dog & the Boys had a long drive over to Lexington yesterday.  That means you can be assured that we put the time in to get these picks right.  That’s why these 5 are in the Pound this week.

Thanks for stopping by The Pound and we hope you adopt these picks. Now GO POUND THESE PICKS! You’ll be glad you did.

Three Woofs. 🐶🐶🐶

Pound These Picks

  1. DEN @ GB – UNDER 43.5
  2. LAR -3 
  3. SEA -4
  4. KC -7
  5. NYG @ TB – UNDER 48

Never miss the Dog Pound Picks. Make sure to follow @realdoggybets on twitter

Dog Pound – Week 2

Let’s face it. We’re all in a pinch and crunched for time and sometimes we gotta get in-n-outta Dodge quicker than Barney at the good ole, now defunct (pour one out) Dairyland Greyhound Race Track in the wonderful Cream State of Wisconsin.  That doesn’t mean you should cut out your weekly NFL betting intel. Stop by The Dog Pound for our 5 weekly Picks To Pound.

There’s a lot of noise out there, but these are the bets you need to pound this week. Liquidate the college fund, cash out your 401k, dig up the coin you’ve buried out back and get invested because The Dog LOVES these picks!

Week 2 is shaping up to look like a road team dream.

Three Woofs.

Pound these picks

  1. DAL -6
  2. ARI @ BAL – OVER 46.5
  3. JAX +8.5
  4. NE -19.5
  5. LAC @ DET – UNDER 47.5